IStock Photo 5038260 © James Steidl

With only three days left to play in the 2009 regular season, B.J. Upton hit for the cycle. That makes him the 8th player to turn the trick this year—and the first Tampa Bay Ray player to do it in the team’s 12-year history. For months here at Book of Odds, it has seemed like every time we updated the odds on hitting for the cycle somebody stepped up to the plate and did it again! The odds hitting for the cycle will occur 1 or more times in an MLB season are 1 in 1.25 (80%). The odds hitting for the cycle will occur at least 8 times during an MLB season are 1 in 62.5. The only other year players have hit for the cycle 8 times was 1933.

There’s no denying that 2009 has been a fan’s dream. Six months of play have featured a no-hitter, a perfect game, an unassisted triple play, and eight cycles. Each event is rare, but some are more anomalies than acts of skill. Most baseball aficionados agree that the unassisted triple play—as infrequent as it is—does not require exceptional talent. This play can be written off to a fluke—the fielder has to be in the right place at the right time and then perform as he is expected to. Of the 15 unassisted triple plays in baseball history, all have been executed by an infielder snatching a line drive and then nailing runners off their bases. Hitting for the cycle is also unusual but only insofar as it is a statistical quirk instead of a goal. B.J. Upton might rather have hit two doubles along with his triple and homer.

However, the 2009 season will be remembered as truly special thanks to the execution of two unusual feats. The first has become so rare as to be almost extinct: the pure steal of home. Thought by many to be the most daring and exciting play in baseball, such a steal occurs when the runner on third breaks for the plate independently—not as part of a double steal or a squeeze play or any other play. This play, which requires speed, timing and instinct, is becoming increasingly rare, yet in 2009, three players pulled it off successfully: Jacoby Ellsbury of the Red Sox; Jayson Werth of the Phillies; and Gary Matthews, Jr. of the Angels.

In the first half of the 20th century, when base running was a more common offensive tool, a steal of home was not uncommon. Baseball Almanac, which tracks such steals, lists 19 players with 20 or more; Ty Cobb did it 54 times alone. But a look at the numbers shows that since 1950 the incidence of such steals has dropped off sharply. Of the 38 Major Leaguers credited with stealing home at least 10 times, only two, Rod Carew and Paul Molitor, began their careers after 1950. What’s more, Rickey Henderson, baseball’s all-time leader with 1,406 steals, swiped home plate a mere four times in his career.

The game has clearly changed—at least when it comes to base running. Major League scouts theorize that the increase in production from the middle of modern-day line-ups decreases the desire to play for one run—and thus, limits the need to steal home. Players like Paul Molitor, who stole home ten times in a 20-year career that ended in 1998, cite the fact that few pitchers throw from the windup when a runner is on third base, resulting in fewer players attempting the steal of home. The odds an attempt to steal home plate is successful are 1 in 3.68.

Three pure steals of home in one season already marks 2009 as unusual, but combined with the second accomplishment—Mark Buehrle’s perfect game, a feat that’s even more rare than the straight steal of home—the unusual becomes the extraordinary.

Throwing a perfect game requires complete mastery of the art. When the White Sox’s Mark Buehrle did not allow a single Tampa Bay Rays batter to reach base on July 23rd, 2009, he became the first American League pitcher in 10 years to throw a perfect game. The odds a Major League game will be a perfect game are 1 in 11,500.

Buehrle may have had an advantage in that he throws for an American League team. Since baseball’s modern era began in 1900, there have only been 16 years blessed with a perfect game—and only four belong to National League pitchers. In fact, the NL did not have its first modern-day perfect game until 1964 when Jim Bunning retired 27 Mets in a row on Father’s Day. Sandy Koufax tossed a perfect game the following year, and the league had to wait another 23 years for the next one.

The American League has had nearly three times as many perfect games as the National League. Since 1900, AL pitchers have thrown at least one in every decade except for three. This appears to be counterintuitive, being that the AL lineups are much deeper due to the inclusion of the designated hitter. Perhaps not having to bat gives American League pitchers an advantage in that they can focus solely on pitching.

So, is it fair to say that 2009 was a season of oddities? Take three pure steals of home, one perfect game, along with the statistical surprises—eight cycles and an unassisted triple play—and the answer has to be absolutely. And who knows what the World Series will bring?

Note:

We are not overlooking the not-quite-pure steal of home by the White Sox's Chris Getz in June. Standing on third in anticipation of a suicide squeeze, Getz broke for home on Carlos Zambrano's delivery. However, the batter, DeWayne Wise, failed to bunt when Zambrano's pitch sailed past the catcher. Getz was credited with a steal of home by the Elias Sports Bureau, MLB's official statistician.