WILL YOU LIVE TO BE 100?
IStock Photo 8819240 © Jacob Wackerhausen
After reaching a certain age, many adults blow out their birthday candles with a wish that there were fewer of them on the cake. But with life expectancy in the US at an all-time high of 77.8 years, we all may have more and more of those candles to look forward to. With advances in nutrition, cancer and heart disease treatments, and the care of premature infants, life expectancy has skyrocketed. About half of our ancestors born in the early 1900s would only get as far as 47 candles. Today those topping 100 years are the fastest growing age segment, with the number of centenarians expected to increase from 75,000 to over 600,000 by 2050 as baby boomers and their children continue to live longer and longer.
Rather than scheduling another round of Botox® on your next birthday, here’s a better way to think about it: every birthday you reach statistically improves your odds of reaching the next one. For example, the predicted odds a one-year-old will live to at least 100 years old are 1 in 39.57. Making it through the perilous teenage years raises the odds only slightly; the predicted odds a 21-year-old will live to at least 100 are 1 in 39.29.
But once those candles start piling up in middle age, a long life is looking better and better. At 50, your odds improve to 1 in 37.34, jumping to 1 in 21.48 once you reach 80. Before you know it, you’ll be 90 years old, with 1 in 8.85 odds of making it to the century mark.
As in all things related to longevity, women have an advantage over men in reaching the century mark. Not only do women live longer in general, they increase their staying power toward the end. At 40, a woman’s life expectancy is 11% higher than a man’s, 41.45 years to 37.30 years. At 95, the gap has grown to 21%. Out of every 100,000 women, according to Social Security Administration actuarial tables, just under 2,000 will live to 100. Among 100,000 men, only 543 are likely to live that long.
Obviously individual health and habits have the most influence on whether you’ll join that privileged group, but as Woody Allen said, “Ninety percent of life is just showing up.” When it comes time to show up for your next birthday party, don’t think of those candles as marking your decline. Instead, as more and more of the population joins you in the golden years, consider an investment in candle futures, your own included.
Click here to read an interview with Bernice Madigan, 110 years old.














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